You want to win your fantasy baseball league and tell me you’ve never heard of Jeff Sagarin? Well, listen: Sagarin’s rantings are part of the holy grail of sabermetrics. Sagrin’s RPG metric for hitters calculates the runs per game generated by a particular player if there were an entire lineup made up of that individual. For pitchers, the metric it calculates is called Predicted ERA.
Predicted effectiveness is calculated by normalizing a launcher’s current statistics to a model generated from a 1946-1999 launch data set. Both RPG and Predicted Effectiveness ratings are accepted statistical measures used by both baseball talent evaluators and betting odds makers.
The RPG metric is obtained using the Markov chain algorithm, which is a rigorous statistical methodology. The final RPG score for hitters takes into account runs scored, hits, batting average, RBIs, and stolen bases. The predicted ERA metric takes into account innings pitched, ERA, wins, saves, as well as a few other pitching metrics.
At the end of the day, a player’s RPG or predicted ERA can be used as a direct comparison between players and is a great tool for evaluating trades. Sagrarin’s ratings can be found at USAToday.com ([http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp09.htm]).
An interesting approach to evaluating trades and comparing players is to combine the Sagarin ratings with the BABIP stat. Sagarin’s rating gives a good idea of the player’s current value, while BABIP can be used as an indicator of future performance. Visit BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com to learn more about BABIP.