The search for values is universal. It is applicable to both life and business. And it should also apply to football betting. Many bettors do not appreciate the importance of value betting. This is the most important BUT also the most misunderstood concept in football betting. Value is the real key to long-term profit.
WHAT IS VALUE
Simply put, value is found when you can get an item for less than it’s actually worth. The following illustration will explain it clearly.
You are an antiques enthusiast and you are browsing in an antique store. You notice a beautiful antique vase on sale for $100. You know you could resell the vase for at least $120. This means there is VALUE in buying the vase. The key here is your KNOWLEDGE that the vase is actually worth $120.
However, if you buy the vase with the intention of selling it but WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE how much the vase could sell for, then this is not a smart buy and it is not a value buy.
The same principle applies to soccer betting. In sports, the true value of the outcome of a match is expressed by the probability of that outcome occurring. If you can get a price that is HIGHER than indicated by the probability, then you have found the value.
Therefore, the prices (or odds) offered by the bookmakers are related to the probability of that result occurring. Now how do we determine if probabilities have value?
PRICES (OR FEES)
Fair prices (or quotas) are established if the result is expected to be a 50/50 situation.
Let’s take the example of a coin toss. Since there are two sides of the coin, the chances of heads and tails are 50% each. The formula for calculating the odds in a 50/50 situation is 100/50 = 2. Therefore, odds of 2 are called FAIR ODDS.
So if we are betting on coin flips, when the offered price is less than 2, then it is worthless because we will definitely lose. However, if the price is higher than 2, say 2.10, it means that the probability of winning is 5% higher (2.10/2.00). This is the value.
HOW TO CALCULATE IF A BET HAS VALUE
Before knowing how to find the value, we first need to understand how to calculate probability and value.
probability calculation
The formula is:
Probability = 1 / 0dds
So if an event is bid at 2.50, then it has a probability of
1 / 2.5 = 40% chance to happen ACCORDING TO THE BETTING HOUSE.
If you estimate that the ‘true’ probability is greater than 40%, then you have found value.
value calculation
The formula is:
Odds x Percentage / 100 > 1.0 (The figure must be greater than 1.0 to have value)
In the example above, if you estimate the percentage to be 50%, the value calculation would be:
2.50 x 50 / 100 = 1.25 (This is the value since the number is greater than 1.0)
HOW TO FIND VALUE
The keys to value punting are:
* How accurate you can estimate the winning percentage of the result.
* Get the best odds for that event.
Calculating the probability of winning is not an easy task. Finding value is 100% subjective. One may find the odds of 1.20 valuable, but another may disagree. Some punters feel that for odds of 1.20, the event should have at least 83% probability because they have to win five out of six 1.20 events to make a profit.
Therefore, finding value odds is very individualistic. Sometimes odds of 1.50 represent value. Sometimes even 15.00 is not worth a try.
After researching the usual selection criteria, pre-select your betting targets. Then create your own estimates for home win, tie, or away win percentage. No strategy is set in stone. You should try various methods and over time you will realize how certain factors will influence the result more than others.
Time, experience and practice are essential to ‘perfect’ your methods.
CONCLUSION
If one of your value bets loses, it does not mean that the bet is worthless. A bettor must learn to accept that not all bets can be winning bets. The deciding factor is finding value in your selections. Of course, the higher the number of value bets, the higher the profit he can achieve.